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1 | UraniumCycles.com The last cycle is night 🌘 and day ☀️ different to this cycle. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Comparing and contrasting key factors of the previous and current uranium bull markets. | 2000s Uranium Bull Market | Then | -vs- | Now | Current Uranium Bull Market | Info | |||||||||||||||||||
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4 | Supply / Demand | Unbalanced Market | Oversupplied market From 2006 - 2013, there was a 125 million lb supply surplus | Large Negative | -vs- | Large Positive | Significantly undersupplied market From 2024 - 2040, there is a 1.5 billion lb supply deficit | Justin Huhn (3:42): MacroVoices #410 Justin Huhn: Investing in All Things Nuclear - YouTube Mike Alkin (18:45): This is How the Uranium Market Really Works, Industry "Experts" are Wrong: Mike Alkin - YouTube Mike Alkin (9:55): Mike Alkin - Investing in Uranium and Nuclear Energy - YouTube Mike Alkin (16:30): Exploring the Uranium Bull Thesis and Structural Uranium Supply Deficit with Mike Alkin - YouTube | ||||||||||||||||||
5 | Secondary Supply | Megatons to Megawatts | Russian weapons were downblended and uranium sold to USA Sold 18 - 22M lbs/yr ; program duration from 1993 - 2013 | Large Negative | -vs- | n/a | The program between Russia and USA no longer exists | Mike Alkin (16:30): Exploring the Uranium Bull Thesis and Structural Uranium Supply Deficit with Mike Alkin - YouTube | ||||||||||||||||||
6 | Secondary Supply | Government Sales | USA Department of Energy sold surplus uranium | Negative | -vs- | Small Positive | USA Department of Energy is buying uranium | twitter.com/quakes99/status/1745169409889669377 United States Department of Energy Excess Uranium Inventory Management Plan x.com/PraiseKek/status/1755590153387606029?s=20 | ||||||||||||||||||
7 | Primary Supply | Mine Issues | Cigar Lake - Mine Flood: 2006 It was a new mine under construction at the time (supply delay) | Large Positive | -vs- | Large Positive | Kazatomprom Mines: 2024 - 2026 lower production TBD 20 - 30M+ lbs of less supply | twitter.com/quakes99/status/1752957998316843377 Justin Huhn (56:55): Uranium Conference - Jan 26 at 10am ET - Sponsored by Sprott - YouTube Brandon Munro (1:12): Kazatomprom Cuts Accelerate Supply Deficit in Tightening Uranium Market; Sanctions Add Risk - YouTube traderferg.substack.com/p/what-im-seeing-with-uranium Cigar Lake mine - Wikipedia | ||||||||||||||||||
8 | Primary Supply | Mine Issues | Ranger Mine - Mine Flood: 2006 - Cyclone Monica Flooded the operating pit (20% drop in annual production) | Large Positive | -vs- | Positive | Somaïr Mine: 2023 closed due to Niger govt coup (~1.5M lbs) Dasa Mine: 2023 delayed start due to Niger govt coup (~2M lbs) | Ranger Uranium Mine - Wikipedia nucnet.org/news/orano-brings-forward-maintenance-work-at-somair-site-as-main-supply-corridor-remains-closed-9-3-2023 | ||||||||||||||||||
9 | Primary Supply | Mine Issues | Ranger Mine - Mine Issue: 2007 - Cyclone George Heavy rains caused lite flooding (~25% drop in Q1 production) | Positive | -vs- | Large Positive | No.6 Mine of Rosatom: delayed start from 2026 to 2028 8M lbs of supply delayed | Ranger Uranium Mine - Wikipedia interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/98614/#:~:text=%22We%20have%20set%20such%20an,Rosatom%20uranium%20strategy's%20key%20projects | ||||||||||||||||||
10 | Primary Supply | New Large Producer | Rapid and unforeseen growth of Kazakhstan From small producer to +40% of primary supply | Large Negative | -vs- | n/a | 2 large mines are delayed and first 5yrs of all supply goes to Russia After that, no large mines coming online until Arrow (~2030 or later) | Mike Alkin (18:18): Exploring the Uranium Bull Thesis and Structural Uranium Supply Deficit with Mike Alkin - YouTube x.com/Grainjones/status/1714657865967837576?s=20 | ||||||||||||||||||
11 | Secondary Supply | Underfeeding/Overfeeding | Russian and Western underfeeding And tails re-enrichment which reduced demand | Large Negative | -vs- | Large Positive | Western shift from underfeeding to overfeeding And higher tails assays which pulls forward some demand by ~20% | Mike Alkin (22:32): The Uranium Interview - Mike Alkin, Sachem Cove Partners - YouTube | ||||||||||||||||||
12 | Secondary Supply | Laser Enrichment Supply | n/a | n/a | -vs- | Negative | Commercial-scale laser enrichment as a new source of supply Around 2028 - 2030, it could produce up to 5M lbs/yr | John Legget (29:95): 🔴 Uranium Myth Busting ⚡ MUST WATCH If You Own Uranium Stocks 🤯| John Leggett - YouTube | ||||||||||||||||||
13 | Secondary Demand | Bifurcation of Supply/Demand | No geopolitical bifurcation between buyers and sellers | n/a | -vs- | Positive | Geopolitical Risk: ~70% consumed in the West and ~70% produced in the East | Mike Alkin (21:48): Exploring the Uranium Bull Thesis and Structural Uranium Supply Deficit with Mike Alkin - YouTube | ||||||||||||||||||
14 | Primary Demand | Reactor Extensions/Restarts | No significant and unexpected reactor extensions or restarts | n/a | -vs- | Large Positive | Torness, Heysham 1 & 2, Hartlepool, Diablo Canyon, Palisades, North Anna, Olkiluoto 1 & 2, Doel 4, Tihange 3, Sizewell B, etc | uraniumcatalysts.com | ||||||||||||||||||
15 | Primary Demand | Replacement Rate Contracting | Utilities contracted at replacement rates | Large Positive | -vs- | Large Positive | Utilities contracting at replacement rates | Justin Huhn (47:25): MacroVoices #410 Justin Huhn: Investing in All Things Nuclear - YouTube Mike Alkin (16:30): Exploring the Uranium Bull Thesis and Structural Uranium Supply Deficit with Mike Alkin - YouTube | ||||||||||||||||||
16 | Secondary Demand | Inventory Restocking | Restocking occurred (utilities bought 110% - 120% of their needs) | Positive | -vs- | Positive | Restocking expected (utilities buying 110% - 120% of their needs) | Mike Alkin (20:00): Exploring the Uranium Bull Thesis and Structural Uranium Supply Deficit with Mike Alkin - YouTube | ||||||||||||||||||
17 | Secondary Demand | Physical Uranium Funds | UPC bought 8.2M lbs of U3O8 equivalent Uranium participation corp eventually became SPUT | Small Positive | -vs- | Large Positive | SPUT: since 2021, bought 46M lbs that CANT be sold (& still buying) The lbs go to 'uranium heaven'...never to be seen again | Mike Alkin (02:13:10): Uranium Sector Update - The Cycle Has Turned | Mike Alkin & Tim Chilleri - Sachem Cove Partners - YouTube Sprott Physical Uranium Trust reuters.com/article/idUSL01636920/#:~:text=JOHANNESBURG%2C%20July%201%20(Reuters),U.S.%2Dbased%20utility%20Constellation%20Energy%20. https://archive.is/NWlDx#selection-4051.16-4051.35 | ||||||||||||||||||
18 | Secondary Demand | Hedge Funds and Family Offices | Bought 40M lbs of uranium (and later sold a lot) Adit Capital, Solios Fund, QVT Financial LP, Nufcor, etc | Large Positive became a Large Negative | -vs- | TBD | As of early 2024, estimated 20 - 30M lbs bought and held Nufcor via Goldman (7M), hedge funds (10 - 20M), ANU energy (1.48M) | Mike Alkin (02:13:10): Uranium Sector Update - The Cycle Has Turned | Mike Alkin & Tim Chilleri - Sachem Cove Partners - YouTube Sprott Physical Uranium Trust reuters.com/article/idUSL01636920/#:~:text=JOHANNESBURG%2C%20July%201%20(Reuters),U.S.%2Dbased%20utility%20Constellation%20Energy%20. https://archive.is/NWlDx#selection-4051.16-4051.35 | ||||||||||||||||||
19 | Secondary Demand | ETFs and Flywheel Effect | Less ETFs with smaller market caps and no flywheel effect | n/a | -vs- | Positive | Reflexivity: URNM and URA both hold a large % of SPUT and YCA When $ flows into the ETFs, more $ buys SPUT & YCA | twitter.com/z_axis_capital/status/1706337663492493702 URNM Sprott Uranium Miners ETF Uranium ETF (URA) | ||||||||||||||||||
20 | Other Factor | Social Media | Social media was in its infancy stages | n/a | -vs- | Small Positive | Social media enables info to spread far and fast | X.com: #uranium reddit.com/r/UraniumSqueeze/ discord/UraniumSqueeze/ | ||||||||||||||||||
21 | Other Factor | Ease of Investing | High trading costs, harder to invest, etc | n/a | -vs- | Small Positive | Low trading costs, easier to invest, etc | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||
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24 | UraniumCycles.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | Please feel welcome to share. This is not investment advice. Data is based on research and opinions and may not be accurate...much of it is forward looking. Please do your own research. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||